South Africa has been experiencing slow economic growth for over half a decade now, starting from the 2009 global financial crisis when it’s GDP contracted by 1.5%. In the past two years internal and external factors have continued to batter our economy – falling international commodity prices, reduced mine output, political crisis, and China’s lowered growth expectations have exacerbated the situation.
These challenges have not broken the resolve of local business and political leaders to emulate the 5.6% peak experienced in 2006, the highest growth of the post-Apartheid era and the outcome of market liberalisation, rising commodity prices and opening the economy to foreign investors. Our position as Africa’s third-largest economy and the most globally integrated financially makes us an automatic first-choice for foreign investors despite the rough economic indicators. This is mainly because of strong fundamentals and a dynamic financial services sector which is working closely with the government and international financial institutions to restore confidence in investors.
Stable and well-reputed sector internationally
It makes sense banks are leading the efforts to revive the economy – the South African banking sector is highly regulated and was ranked the 6th most stable sector in the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report in 2014. Banks have been a beacon of optimism in South Africa’s lean economic times. With the economy expanding at less than one percent, bank assets have grown by a staggering 15.6% to 4.8 trillion Rand in 2015 compared to the previous year. I would attribute this success to South Africa’s reputation as the gateway to Africa, and the expansion policies of local banks wanting to increase their footprint in neighbouring countries.
In May of last year, it was the financial sector and big businesses that helped the government stave off a junk status from the rating agencies in light of consistently poor economic performance and rising political tensions. I along with several other financial sector CEOs was involved in meeting the agencies and talking to them about what we’re doing as a broader business to try and address some of the constraints in South Africa, including what we’re doing with some of the political issues. We worked closely with former Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan in averting certain economic disaster and appreciate his acknowledgement of the financial sector’s contribution in proactively resolving the issue.
The decision calmed fears of a hike in interest rates, devaluation of the Rand, and foreign investor flight, but it was not enough to pull South Africa out of the red zone.
Public-private partnerships of the financial sector
I’m managing the initiative of 90 CEOs working on launching an SME equity fund, and together with the Public Investment Corporation we are also evaluating stressed industries such as mining, construction, and health that need restructuring. We are also strategising policies for high-potential industries that we are not exploiting to the fullest, such as tourism and agriculture. We have the land and good commercial agriculture people, but we need to fix our land distribution issues to maximise our potential. If people are allocated land they must have the necessary training and skills to work on it instead of the land becoming fallow. The Banking Association has selected agriculture as the theme of our annual summit – a sign of our commitment to improve the sector.
Like most emerging markets, South Africa depends heavily on small and medium enterprises to drive economic growth and create jobs. According to the 2030 National Development Plan (NDP), 90% of new jobs will be created by small businesses. The SME equity fund is a public-private partnership that aims to increase capital flows to the informal sector to fund sustainable business opportunities. With an initial capital of 1.5 billion Rand, the fund will lend to established agencies already working directly with scalable small businesses and offer entrepreneurs mentoring from retired business executives. We have finalised the board and are in process of registering the fund. By November we will announce when it will be up and running since it is part of our efforts to show the rating agencies in December that we’re making progress.
Any steps by the financial services sector to revive economic growth will hinge on Johannesburg’s status as the continent’s financial hub. The opening of the regional office of the New Development Bank (formerly BRICS Development Bank) is an important milestone for Joburg, but inner city degradation, poverty, crime and violence have taken a toll on its “24-hour city” charm. I’m deputy chair of an organisation called Trust for Urban Housing Finance that works very closely with Johannesburg to look at buildings and renovate them to convert them into residential accommodation. We need to get that right and make sure we don’t see derelict buildings. FirstRand Bank has straddled about 3 or 4 blocks of the city and created savannahs where people can go to at night. They’ve worked with the city to green the area and create safe areas where people can congregate. However, for any sustained development, it is imperative the city government conducts its business in a way that sends out a message that the administration is sound and committed to progress.
Strong sector can lead South Africa out of economic troubles
We are the third largest economy in Africa at the moment but if you look at Egypt and Nigeria -first and second respectively – they lag behind us in terms of diversity and infrastructure. International banks will feel comfortable operating from here and launching expansions into the rest of the continent because of our advanced regulations and international best practices. What many people don’t realise is that we are the biggest investor on the continent, not China or India. So there are a lot of positives that investors see beyond the rocky ratings.
As a member of the nine-person steering committee leading the public-private partnership, I am optimistic about executing our roadmap for economic recovery primarily because this is the first time that money [businesses] and authority [government], traditionally on opposite sides, have too much to lose by not working together.